Reconnecting the Bering Strait

As President Obama pushed the reset button in the White House over the US-Russian relations it jump started many speculation and boundless fantasies. One of them was drawn up by Igor Yurgens, Chariman of the Institute of Contemporary Development, at the conference held parallel to the NATO Defense Ministerial Meeting in Bratislava when he said that in the future he would have seen Russia as a member of NATO, however clearly that NATO needed to be different. 

His speculation over that future NATO would suggest a new security architecture for the Northern Hemisphere which would make such a thing as the Russian Federation a part of NATO imaginable. Here is a short list of limiting factors:

• Throughout the centuries the Russian Federation always sought an expansionist foreign policy in order to create a buffer zone around the core of the country. This aimed at counter measuring the geographical fact that from East to West and from West to East there are no real natural borders. The buffer zone policy proved useful during the Napoleonic Wars, the WWI and the WWII. 
  In the latest history of the modern Russia, the policy it pursues vis-a-vis Ukraine, Belarus and the Caucasian States most notably Georgia fits into this picture. Previously the Baltic States and Poland were also included.
  

• Russia includes vast territories, 11 time zones and over 170 ethnic groups. This has been always a challenge to the leadership in Moscow which resulted in a bureaucratic administration that extensively use the power of terror to keep its citizens in line with official policies.
• The economy is heavily reliant in the export of raw materials such as oil, gas and different metals which could be used as a tool of power projection in the framework of foreign policy but weakens the country as it needs to import a significant portion of all value-added products. This is the case of basic agricultural products and machinery. 
• This adds to the dysfunctions in the society in which those who have control over the exploitation and export of raw materials and the import of goods can experience a much higher income level. Although it is by way far fetched to say that the export is controlled by the political elite (including the secret agencies) and the import by the crime groups, however those who have only a short glimps on the society could only see that. 
• Democracy is showing a very weak form and could exist only within the governing elite where different fractions battle over the control of rare assets of the country. 
• In such an environment freedom of speech is basically against the establishment and as such is not tolerated. It includes assassination of journalists, closing down radio and TV stations as well as banning non-governmental organizations. 

The above list could be further developed, however it is quite clear that these norms and situation does not comply with most of the values of NATO member countries in the field of politics, economy or society. Especially when some members of the Eastern side of NATO feels endangered itself from Russia that such a compromise could be done to accept Russia as a member of NATO.

All this said there is however a need to reset the relationship between Russia and the US or NATO. NATO and the Western community has to work on several issues together with Russia such as Afghanistan, Iran or even questions of climate change or drawing up a new international financial system.

This work requires platforms that exists today but the atmosphere need a bit of easing between the parties on the above mentioned questions. It is overly naive to imagine stability without a stabile and reaffirmed Russia in the Northern Hemisphere. Some countries that have vital interest in the Eastern side of Europe understands this like Germany, some have deep historical wounds that needs time to heal like Poland and the Baltics and some need guidance to recognize this like Hungary.

As the compromise is too great on both sides to make, there could be other forum than NATO to intensify cooperation. The UN, the OSCE, the Shanghai Cooperation or even the EU could be all part of a mozaik of an interlocking web of interests that is to provide value-added to the participating countries in securing the Northern Hemisphere.  

The future cooperation with Russian therefore heavily depends on what program will be loaded after the system reboot in the White House.